
ArmInfo. Russia has leverage on Azerbaijan and Armenia on the implementation of the Sochi agreements of the leaders of the three countries of October 31.
A similar opinion was expressed by Feodor Voitolovsky, Director of the
Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations
(IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences, Member of the Presidium Council
for Science and Education under the President of the Russian
Federation, referring to the Sochi meeting of the leaders of Armenia,
Azerbaijan and Russia. At the same time, as the key achievements of
the Sochi meeting, the doctor of political sciences mentioned the
obligations of the parties to refrain from the use of force or the
threat of force, as well as the further activities of the Russian
peacekeeping contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh. At the same time, he
believes that there is no point in expecting breakthroughs from the
Sochi declaration - its very value lies in the fact that the parties
agreed to meet and continue negotiations on acute and painful issues.
The political scientist considers the presence of Russian
peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as various political and
diplomatic instruments, economic and other instruments of influence,
as instruments of influence on all parties to the conflict for the
implementation of these agreements.
To the remark that if Russia has leverage, then how did Azerbaijan
violate the ceasefire, the political scientist admitted that indeed,
such violations took place. Voitolovsky stated that throughout the
entire post-war period, Azerbaijan took a rather tough position,
which was based on the support of Turkey and the tacit support of the
United States. "Yes, yes, precisely on the support of the United
States, because if the United States had actually sanctioned Turkey's
actions during the 44-day war of 2020, then Ankara could not afford
the freedom of action and the support that Baku provided," he said in
an interview with Public Television of Armenia.
When asked whether Azerbaijan could start a war without Russia's
consent, Voitolovsky expressed his conviction that Baku started the
war without Moscow's consent. According to the expert, Russia
received the information, in fact, only on the eve of the start of
hostilities.
He once again stressed that Russia has leverage that works. In this
vein, the expert stated that if these levers did not work, Ilham
Aliyev would not have come to Sochi to talk with Vladimir Putin and
Nikol Pashinyan. Otherwise, Azerbaijan would not have stopped the
war where it stopped and would have received not only 7 regions
surrounding the Nagorno-Karabakh unrecognized republic, but would
have received the entire territory of the unrecognized NKR and
Stepanakert, and possibly would have gone further. After all, as we
know, Azerbaijan is promoting a very firm position that it can move
further, because the borders are not delimited and not demarcated,"
the political scientist said, recalling that now it is Russia that is
actively proposing to the parties to conduct this process.
At the same time, Voitolovsky drew attention to the fact that, unlike
other draft peace treaties proposed by the EU and the US, the Russian
Federation clearly states its position on the need to recognize the
interests of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh, residents of the
unrecognized NKR. "And Russia has not changed its position in this
case," he remarked. And to the question, what is Russia's position on
Nagorno- Karabakh, Voitolovsky asked a counter question about
Armenia's position on Artsakh. "And what is Armenia's position on
Nagorno-Karabakh? Armenia does not have a clear position. Armenia has
not recognized the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh," he said. And in
response to the journalist's comment that this does not mean that
Armenia does not have a clear position, the Russian expert noted that
Russia does too.
"Russia cannot recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. But,
in my opinion, without Russia and Armenia, there would be no
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic at all," the political scientist said.
At the same time, he drew attention to the fact that the US position
on this issue is unequivocal since they recognize Azerbaijan's
sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. The Russian Federation has a more
flexible position on this issue. "Russian peacekeepers at the moment
ensure the vital activity, the very existence of the unrecognized
NKR," he said.
The expert did not agree with the statement that the United States
and Russia have a similar position on the issue of Artsakh, namely
that it is Azerbaijani land. He assured that Russia's position is
more complicated, and it says that the issue of the status of the NKR
should be resolved through negotiations and a referendum, which
should be held on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, when a peaceful
settlement is reached. "And this is a very serious difference from
the position of the US and the EU," the international expert added.
He once again drew attention to the fact that official Yerevan does
not have a clear position on the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh. "Armenia
did not recognize the independence of the NKR, did not recognize it
as part of its territory. Look, during the 44-day war, Armenian
volunteers, who arrived, including from Russia, participated as part
of the Armenian army, but unofficially. It was not possible to fully
declare the mobilization, and the Armenian leadership did not want to
be drawn into the conflict, because this would no longer mean a
conflict between Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan, but would mean a
conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan," Voitolovsky noted.
To the remark that Russia did not express a clear position in
connection with the Azerbaijani aggression against Armenia, the
expert assured that Moscow will be the only one to show assistance to
Yerevan in that cas Responding to the thesis that the Azerbaijani
Armed Forces did not go further during the September escalation,
because they were stopped by America's position, which Washington
officially announced, Voitolovsky retorted: "What do you think, if
America once supported Turkey and allowed Azerbaijan to act
completely definitely in Nagorno-Karabakh, why is the US suddenly
changing its position now? After all, Turkey is a loyal member of
the North Atlantic Alliance. Azerbaijan is an ally of Turkey. Being
an ally of Turkey, Azerbaijan is de facto becoming NATO's entry point
to the South Caucasus."
At the same time, he stressed that alliance is a two-way road. "If
before the developments of 2020 and the current developments, Armenia
had taken a clearer position on Crimea, then I believe that the
position of the Russian leadership on Nagorno-Karabakh was much
firmer both in 2020 and now. But, Armenia did not do this. If Armenia
at one time had agreed to cooperation in the field of air and missile
defense, which the Russian side had repeatedly proposed, but it did
not do so. Yes, there is a framework agreement between the parties.
But, it could be filled with real content in terms of arms supplies
and military equipment, and in terms of joint systems," he said. To
the clarifying question of the presenter about < was the Armenian
side against it?>, the expert answered in the affirmative. " The
Armenian side, both during the previous and current administrations,
but above all, during the previous administration (under Serzh
Sargsyan - ed. note), refused Russian proposals. Therefore, alliance
is a two-way road," the political scientist noted. He once again
assured that " Russia cares about what happens to Armenia ", and that
is why, it proposes a long, difficult process, where solutions will
be worked out that suit both Yerevan and Baku, while taking into
account the interests and security of the population of Nagorny
Karabakh.
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