Forecast: With the surrender of Berdzor, Azerbaijani military  blackmail will not stop

  • August 5, 2022
Forecast: With the surrender of Berdzor, Azerbaijani military  blackmail will not stop ArmInfo.The purpose of the latest Azerbaijani attacks on the positions of the Artsakh Defense Army is to force Armenia to build a road bypassing Berdzor in order to  surrender it. Political scientist Armen Vardanyan expressed a similar  opinion to ArmInfo.  "And I absolutely do not expect such a policy of military blackmail  to stop after the construction of this road.  Baku's recent military  provocations were just a warning and ultimatum. And they will  continue until they come across either a symmetrical response or  diplomatic agreements. One way or another , but Aliyev clearly does  not intend to make concessions on the issue of Berdzor. So the  surrender of the city is only a matter of time," he said. In making this forecast, the political scientist relies on the fact  of the inaction of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Artsakh,  which is absolutely not going to somehow interfere in the hostilities  in the territory under its control. And after the withdrawal of the  last units from Armenia, the Artsakh Defense Army will obviously not  be able to resist the large-scale Azerbaijani aggression. "The inaction of the peacekeepers is explained simply - their goal is  not at all to protect the people of Artsakh at the cost of their own  lives. Moscow's goal is monopoly control over the  Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict through its own military. In other  words, their goal is not peacekeeping, but geopolitics. And the  results of the clashes in the corridor in this sense are not new at  all. We have already encountered a similar situation in Khtsaberd and  Parukh," Vardanyan recalled. According to the political scientist, against such a background, the  only possible step for Armenia is to contain the militant impulses of  Baku by military means. Since the possibility of a serious  counteraction to Azerbaijani aggression by the Russian Federation, at  best, may be  in 2025, after the end of the term of deployment of the  Russian military in Artsakh.  And this is only if Baku demands their  immediate withdrawal. Commenting on the second, "corridor" vector of  Azerbaijani pressure on Armenia, Vardanyan noted that Baku's attempts  to break through an extraterritorial corridor through Syunik are  unlikely to succeed. According to him, such a scenario is a red line  for Armenia. And any attempts by Aliyev to break through the corridor  by force will run into opposition from Iran, the West, and possibly  Russia," the political scientist summed up. 

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