Forecast: There will be no "Big War"

  • August 1, 2022
Forecast: There will be no "Big War" I do not think that today one can seriously consider and analyze the prospect of  large-scale hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Head of  Caucasus Department of the CIS Institute, Military Expert Vladimir  Evseev expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo. "However, in parallel with the emergence of rough edges and problems  in the negotiation process, there will undoubtedly be military  provocations on the border. In this light, the recent provocations on  the border with Armenia and in Karabakh, of course, were not a  coincidence.  Moreover, in my opinion, they are related to the  rhetoric that has recently been heard from Baku and Ankara," he said. In other words, according to the expert, the violation of the  cease-fire regime in Karabakh and on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border  is due to the purely military-political situation, rather than the  military situation or reasons. And to be more precise, it is caused  by the dissatisfaction of Ankara and Baku regarding the course of  negotiations with Yerevan. On July 30, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces opened fire from small arms  on a position near Taghavard village of Artsakh. The Ministry of  Defense of the Russian Federation confirmed the fact of shelling of  positions of the Defense Army. On the same day, the Azerbaijani  military shelled tthe positions of the Armenian Armed Forces in the  eastern direction of the border. According to Yevseev, in this particular case, by threatening the  opponent through military provocations, Baku is trying to speed up  the discussion and adoption of its five points of the peace  agreement. A process that has stalled both for geopolitical and  purely regional reasons. "They are well aware that already tomorrow the negotiations may enter  an unpredictable stage and more and more questions arise there. This  is where Azerbaijan's urgency and desire to resolve issues with  Armenia as soon as possible comes from. To resolve before the onset  of a new stage of global geopolitical transformations," the military  expert summed up.

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