I do not think that today one can seriously consider and analyze the prospect of
large-scale hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Head of
Caucasus Department of the CIS Institute, Military Expert Vladimir
Evseev expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"However, in parallel with the emergence of rough edges and problems
in the negotiation process, there will undoubtedly be military
provocations on the border. In this light, the recent provocations on
the border with Armenia and in Karabakh, of course, were not a
coincidence. Moreover, in my opinion, they are related to the
rhetoric that has recently been heard from Baku and Ankara," he said.
In other words, according to the expert, the violation of the
cease-fire regime in Karabakh and on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border
is due to the purely military-political situation, rather than the
military situation or reasons. And to be more precise, it is caused
by the dissatisfaction of Ankara and Baku regarding the course of
negotiations with Yerevan.
On July 30, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces opened fire from small arms
on a position near Taghavard village of Artsakh. The Ministry of
Defense of the Russian Federation confirmed the fact of shelling of
positions of the Defense Army. On the same day, the Azerbaijani
military shelled tthe positions of the Armenian Armed Forces in the
eastern direction of the border.
According to Yevseev, in this particular case, by threatening the
opponent through military provocations, Baku is trying to speed up
the discussion and adoption of its five points of the peace
agreement. A process that has stalled both for geopolitical and
purely regional reasons.
"They are well aware that already tomorrow the negotiations may enter
an unpredictable stage and more and more questions arise there. This
is where Azerbaijan's urgency and desire to resolve issues with
Armenia as soon as possible comes from. To resolve before the onset
of a new stage of global geopolitical transformations," the military
expert summed up.